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HILLARY LEADS IN POLLS 150122

COMMENTARY BY DR JOHN WORLDPEACE FOR PRESIDENT 2016

Hillary Clinton seems to be leading Bush and Romney in the polls which is no real surprise. The face of the Republican Party is John Bohner and it is a face of obstruction and beligerance.

I think Americans at this point are comfortable with a Democratic President and Republican congress.

The memory of George Bush is too fresh and was too negative.

That being said it is really early to determine anything more than who is going to make a run for President.

It is not going to be good if Romney and Bush both run and create a wide rift in the Republican backers. I will be hard for the winner of that fight to go up against Hillary with a untied party.

One thing that makes me smile is Bill Clinton in a role that has always been female if Hillary wins.

Dr John WorldPeace

150122 1140 

SOURCE: The Washington Post

Hillary Clinton has double-digit leads over potential GOP presidential rivals, poll shows

By Anne Gearan and Peyton M. Craighill January 22 at 7:00 AM

 Hillary Rodham Clinton holds double-digit leads over potential Republican challengers Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney as the likely Democratic presidential candidate moves closer to entering the race, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.

Although Clinton, Bush and Romney are all longtime politicians and members of political dynasties, registered voters are less likely to count that familiarity against Clinton. That is a good sign for Clinton, a failed 2008 presidential candidate and the focus of Republican criticism that her time has come and gone.

Clinton’s potential to make history as the first female U.S. president makes little difference to most voters and is a net positive for others.

The former first lady, U.S. senator from New York and secretary of state has said she is considering a second run for the White House. She joked about the anticipation surrounding her decision during remarks in Canada on Wednesday but did not offer hints about her thinking or the timing of a possible announcement. Democratic strategists say she is likely to enter the race in late March or April — some 10 months before the first 2016 primary contest in Iowa.

Clinton approaches the nominating season in a dominant position, leading Bush by 54 percent to 41 percent among registered voters and Romney by 55 percent to 40 percent.

Clinton leads in new 2016 poll

Beyond Bush and Romney — the two Republicans who have made the firmest moves toward a 2016 run — Clinton holds equally large leads over other potential Republican hopefuls. She tops Rand Paul and Chris Christie by 13 percentage points each, and leads Mike Huckabee by 17 points.

Clinton’s husband, former president Bill Clinton, appears to create little drag on her potential.

Among all voting-age adults, more than 6 in 10 say the fact that Bill Clinton served as president has no bearing on whether they would support Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. And among those who say her spouse’s presidency will matter, 23 percent say it will make them more likely to support her, while 14 percent say less likely.

A presumed voter distaste for dynasties has long been seen as a barrier to Clinton should she run, along with a sense, off-putting to some, that Clinton’s candidacy has been a foregone conclusion for years.

Jeb Bush’s family connections are less benign. A 55 percent majority says the fact that Bush’s father and brother served as president would not make them more or less likely to support him. But among those for which this will be a factor, it runs in a negative direction by 3 to 1.

Romney’s 2012 bid for the presidency as the Republican nominee makes no difference for just over 6 in 10 Americans. But among those for whom it does matter, about twice as many say it makes them less likely to support him.

Two-thirds of the public say that the potential for Clinton to be the first female president makes no difference in their decision to support her. Those who do put weight on this see it as a positive factor, by more than 2 to 1.

“Partisanship and gender identity are closely aligned in these considerations for Clinton as the first female president. While majorities across all groups say it will not matter, 4 in 10 Democrats and nearly 3 in 10 women say this fact will make them more likely to support her. Men who see it as a factor tilt positive by 19 percent saying more likely to support to 11 percent less likely. Republicans who say it is an issues see it as a net negative, with 24 percent saying her gender will make them less likely to support her and 8 percent more likely.”

Clinton has been building a campaign-in-waiting and a message tuned to the constrained economic fortunes of the working and middle classes. In speeches over the past several months, Clinton has focused especially on the challenges faced by working women. Unlike in 2008, Clinton is expected to embrace her status as the first nationally viable female presidential candidate.

Clinton’s advantages over Republican hopefuls are greater among both male and female voters in the new poll. Female voters favor Clinton by 20 to 24 points while men split more closely, although no Republican has a numerical advantage among this group. Romney won male voters by 52 percent to 45 percent over Obama, according to 2012 exit polls. Clinton edges Romney by 50 percent to 46 percent among male voters in the new poll. Clinton’s 59 percent to 36 percent lead over Romney among female voters is bigger than Obama’s 55 percent to 44 percent over Romney in 2012.

The underpinnings of Clinton’s support in matchups with Republicans are consistent across almost all voting groups for each of the five potential rivals tested in the poll. She wins more than 90 percent support from registered Democrats, whereas her Republican challengers win less than 80 percent among fellow Republicans. Clinton leads each opponent among political independents, a group that narrowly favored Romney over Obama in 2012 even as the Republican lost by four points overall.

White voters tilt toward the Republican candidates, but only by single digits (from three to seven percentage-point margins). Romney and John McCain won whites by 20 and 12 points, respectively, against Obama in 2012 and 2008.

The Post-ABC poll was conducted Jan. 12-15 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults interviewed by telephone, including 311 cellphone-only respondents. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For the sample of 843 registered voters, the margin of error is four percentage points.

Scott Clement contributed to this report.

Anne Gearan is a national politics correspondent for The Washington Post.

Peyton M. Craighill is polling manager for the Washington Post. Peyton reports and conducts national and regional news polls for the Washington Post, with a focus on politics, elections and other social and economic issues.

Personal history boosts Hillary Clinton, hurts Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney

A new poll shows two pluses for Hillary Clinton in 2016 presidential race: her gender and her husband's presidency. Jeb Bush is hurt by his family legacy; Mitt Romney loses ground over failed 2012 bid.

By Linda Feldmann, Staff writer January 22, 2015

Carlo Allegri/Reuters

Washington — The emerging 2016 presidential field is chock-full of familiar names – a Clinton, a Bush, and a Romney. But voter reactions to each one’s “legacy” qualities vary widely. And it’s

Hillary Rodham Clinton who comes out on top.

Among registered voters, former Secretary of State Clinton gains both by the fact that she would be the first woman president and from positive memories of her husband’s presidency, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Thursday.

By a 13-point margin, voters are more likely to vote for Clinton because she’d be the first female president rather than less likely, the poll found. Some 24 percent are more likely; 11 percent are less likely. And the presidency of her husband, former President Bill Clinton, is a positive by 8 percentage points, 24 percent to 16 percent.

Recommended: How much do you know about Hillary Rodham Clinton? Take our quiz.

But for two top potential Republican contenders, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, legacy issues are a drag on their numbers. The fact that Mr. Bush’s father and brother both served as president is a net negative by 25 percentage points – 9 percent positive and 34 percent negative.

In Mr. Romney’s case, his 2012 nomination costs him a net 14 percentage points. Twelve percent of registered voters say they’re more likely to support Romney for that reason while 26 percent say they’re less likely.

“Most registered voters, 57 to 65 percent, say none of these items would be a factor in their vote,” including Clinton’s family legacy, writes ABC News pollster Gary Langer. “But a presidential election is a game of margins, making these views potentially important in the campaign ahead.”

In addition, Clinton beats all Republicans tested in hypothetical matchups by between 13 and 17 percentage points. The poll tested former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

But at this stage in the 2016 race, with no declared candidates, it’s too early to draw conclusions. If Clinton runs, as expected, she is poised to run away with the Democratic nomination. The expected big Republican field is wide open, though Romney’s recent moves toward a third campaign have roiled the establishment wing of the party.

“The potential GOP candidates may be hamstrung by their intramural battle ahead; core Republican support likely will coalesce around the ultimate nominee,” Mr. Langer says.

For now, though, the prospect of a Bush-Romney showdown, in which they compete for many of the same donors, has some Republicans on edge. Bush and Romney are scheduled to meet privately in Utah this week, according to The New York Times.

The meeting raises “the possibility that the two former governors will find a way to avoid competing presidential campaigns that would split the Republican establishment next year,” the Times said, sourcing the report to “two prominent party members.”

Romney was governor of Massachusetts for one term (2003 to 2007), and declined to run again so he could focus on running for president in 2008.

The Times says Bush initiated the meeting, and that it was planned before Romney’s announcement two weeks ago that he might run again.